Inventory & Contract Volume Rise as the Fall Market Takes Shape

The fall real estate market is picking up momentum. 

In Manhattan, inventory rose by 5.3% in the last week as new listings hit the market, although total supply remains 1.5% lower than the same time last year. Meanwhile, this week, Brooklyn experienced a 4.5% increase in supply, and total Brooklyn inventory is now 9% higher year-over-year, reflecting a broader trend seen nationwide. 

Contract volume rose week-over-week, with Manhattan contracts up 21% and Brooklyn contracts up 12%, leading the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Consumer Sentiment Index to increase from 0 to +8.

Year-over-year comparisons reveal diverging trends: Manhattan saw 9% more contracts signed compared to the same week in 2023, while Brooklyn experienced a 9% decline in contract signings. These patterns suggest that Brooklyn’s market may be softening, creating more favorable conditions for buyers. Conversely, Manhattan’s market is showing signs of becoming more competitive, with leverage carefully balanced between sellers and buyers. 

Interest rates continue to decline, further motivating buyers. This prompts some who have been renting to explore purchasing options this fall. With more favorable financing available, this could drive additional demand.

Manhattan Supply

This week, 487 new properties entered the Manhattan market, boosting total supply by 5.3% to 6,380 units. While this marks a solid week-over-week increase, overall supply remains 1.5% lower than at the same time last year. This slight year-over-year decrease signals that Manhattan’s market is still somewhat constrained in terms of inventory, which could sustain competition among buyers. With new listings expected to continue coming on the market in the weeks ahead, buyers may have more choices as fall progresses. However, the combination of lower-than-expected overall supply and improving mortgage rates could lead to increased buyer activity, especially from those looking to transition from renting to owning.

Brooklyn Supply

This week, 279 new listings came to market in Brooklyn, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous week. This influx of inventory contributed to a 4.5% rise in total supply, bringing the borough’s current total to 3,298 units. Unlike Manhattan, where supply remains slightly lower than last year, Brooklyn’s total supply is now 9% higher year-over-year, reflecting a growing inventory trend. This supply increase could give buyers more options, potentially easing some of the competitive pressure.

Manhattan Pending Sales: Pending sales declined by -2.4% to 2,773 units. 

Brooklyn Pending Sales: Pending sales declined by -1.7% to 1,764 units. 

Manhattan Consumer Sentiment

Contract activity rebounded following last week’s holiday slump, with 166 contracts signed this week—a 21% increase from the previous week. While September typically starts slower, this uptick signals growing market momentum. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects this improvement, rising from -20 to -6, though it has remained negative for the past three weeks. Notably, contract activity this week was 9% higher than last week and 19% above the same period in 2019, indicating resilience in the market. As we move further into September and October, contract activity is expected to continue its upward trend.

Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment

Brooklyn’s residential real estate market mirrored Manhattan’s upward trend this week, with contract activity rising by 12% compared to the previous week, totaling 109 signed contracts. However, this volume remains 9% lower than the same period last year. Given the week-over-week increase, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index rose from +35 to +51 over the past week. Contract activity is expected to continue upward through September and into October.

New Development Insights 

Marketproof reported that 42 new development contracts were signed in 27 buildings this week. The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• The Treadwell (Lenox Hill) signed 4 contracts

• Tribeca Green (Battery Park City), 140 Jane Street (West Village), and Vela (Astoria) each signed 3 contracts.